The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) has released an independent analysis examining whether the state and broader PJM region will have sufficient electric resources to reliably serve customers as electricity demand increases and existing generation retires.

The analysis, conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, examined potential reliability impacts under different electricity demand and resource development scenarios. The study found that, based on the current load forecast from regional grid operator PJM and assuming no additional policy actions, the regional grid would not meet PJM's reliability planning standard from 2027 through 2030.

By 2030, the modeled reliability risk under the study's Reference scenario is nearly six times PJM's planning standard.

“Pennsylvania is at an energy crossroads,” said PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank. “Data center development brings significant opportunities, but that growth cannot come at the expense of the families and businesses that already depend on reliable and affordable electric service. This analysis sends a clear warning: electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable. We need urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy that makes sure our supply of electricity keeps pace with demand.”

Reliability Risks Under Different Scenarios

PJM plans the regional electric system around a reliability standard intended to limit potential electricity shortages to approximately one event every 10 years.

The Synapse analysis examined how that risk could change if electricity demand grows faster than available supply.

Under the Reference scenario, described in the study as the most likely scenario based on the current environment, modeled reliability risk in 2030 is nearly six times PJM's planning standard.

A more severe scenario combines higher electricity demand with constraints on the development of new generation. Under that scenario, the model projects an expectation of more than 13 potential loss-of-load events per year beginning in 2030, compared with the traditional planning standard of one event every 10 years.

The results do not predict that customers will experience a specific number of outages. Instead, they illustrate the potential reliability risk if increases in electricity demand significantly outpace the resources available to serve that demand.

Data center development is a significant factor in the study's projections. Under the severe scenario, projected new data center demand across PJM between 2029 and 2030 alone exceeds the current annual electricity demand of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

“Time matters,” Chairman DeFrank said. “The changes highlighted in this report are not decades away. The reliability pressures emerge during the next several years, and the decisions being made now will determine how prepared we are to meet them.”

PUC Actions Address Large-Load Growth

The PUC has taken several steps related to large electricity loads and their potential effects on existing customers.

In May, the PUC established a model large-load tariff for customers requiring 50 megawatts or more of electricity. The tariff is intended to ensure those customers bear the costs they add to the electric system rather than shifting those costs to other ratepayers.

The Commission is also implementing Act 45 of 2025, which provides additional review of Pennsylvania utility load forecasts submitted to PJM. The measure adds another review of forecasts as data center proposals contribute to projections of future electricity demand.

The PUC is also supporting Gov. Josh Shapiro's recent Executive Order addressing data center development and has taken steps related to PJM's proposed Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP). Those steps include directing Pennsylvania electric distribution companies seeking qualifying RBP offsets to submit information to the Commission for review.

Last week, the Commission unanimously adopted a motion by Vice Chair Kimberly Barrow addressing PJM's proposed RBP and Interim Resource Adequacy Service. The action reinforced the Commission's position that, during electricity shortages, existing customers must be protected ahead of newly connecting large loads such as data centers.

Regional Reliability Concerns

The study's findings come as PJM addresses broader regional resource adequacy concerns. PJM's capacity auctions for the 2027-28 and 2028-29 delivery years fell short of the regional reliability requirement, prompting new initiatives intended to secure additional resources and manage large-load growth.

The PUC said Pennsylvania's energy challenges will require coordination among multiple organizations and stakeholders.

“The PUC will continue doing everything within our authority to protect consumers and reliability, but this issue is bigger than the Commission,” DeFrank said. “Pennsylvania's energy system is changing dramatically, and our energy policies need to evolve with it. We need policymakers, regulators, utilities, generators, consumer advocates and other stakeholders working together on a comprehensive approach that encourages economic growth, brings needed energy resources onto the grid, protects existing ratepayers and preserves reliability.”