NERC Analysis Indicates Reduced Risk in MISO Under Assumed Resource Additions, Highlights Ongoing Development Challenges

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) completed a sensitivity analysis examining the risk profile for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region as reflected in the 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA). The analysis considered the successful execution of new resource additions anticipated under MISO’s Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) process.

The analysis incorporates approximately 25 GW of additional generation into the 2025 assessment framework but does not reflect updated load growth projections or potential project delays, both of which are key drivers of reliability risk. Assuming these resources begin commercial operations as planned, risk in the MISO region would remain “elevated” in 2027 and then decline to “normal” in later years through 2030. NERC stated that it is encouraged by these results and recognized MISO’s actions to expedite needed resources.

“We commend MISO for acting to fast-track new generation resources, as well as the state regulator community and FERC for their roles in advancing the ERAS process,” said Jim Robb, NERC president and CEO. “Going forward, persistent headwinds continue to challenge timely development of new resources. We hope deliberate focus and diligence will help move these resources into commercial operation on schedule and alleviate energy shortfalls that could otherwise occur.”

NERC noted that, similar to other generation projects, ERAS additions are expected to face several challenges that could affect timely development of energy infrastructure, including supply chain constraints affecting equipment delivery and construction timelines; transmission upgrades required for interconnection and deliverability; natural gas pipeline and transportation limitations, with more than 75% of ERAS projects relying on natural gas; regulatory and permitting delays; and potential misalignment between infrastructure development and system needs.

While modeled metrics indicate improvement, NERC stated that the real-world risk environment has not materially changed, reinforcing key findings in the 2025 LTRA regarding the importance of timely resource additions and other factors affecting reliability risk.

NERC continues to produce reports and assessments aimed at evaluating reliability risks to the North American grid as it evolves under the influence of government policies, regulations, consumer preferences, and economic factors. The 2026 LTRA, expected to be published early next year, will include updated analysis intended to provide a more comprehensive view of reliability risk in the MISO region and across North America.