Enverus Intelligence Research Releases Report on Future of ERCOT and 765 kV Transmission Expansion

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, has released a report analyzing the future of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), including its 765 kV transmission line expansion and developing power market dynamics.

The report revealed that ERCOT has added 22.5 GW of new capacity since January 2024 and is planning for nearly 100 GW of solar and battery additions by 2030. The approval of a $33 billion 765 kV transmission line highlights system-wide modernization for faster interconnections and reduced curtailment risk.

“ERCOT’s aggressive buildout and transmission overhaul are not just about keeping pace with demand — they’re about redefining how power is delivered in Texas,” said Katherine Paton-Ilse, report author and Power Markets Lead at Enverus. “The 765 kV backbone will be a foundational enabler for transporting renewable energy from remote hubs to high-growth urban centers.”

Key results:

• ERCOT’s Connect and Manage process has enabled 22.5 GW of new capacity since January 2024, 75% more than MISO over the past five years.
• Sub-10 MW projects have reached operation nearly 4x faster than larger ones, with battery storage dominating the small generation queue.
• Battery storage queue growth in ERCOT is accelerating, with developers favoring sub-10 MW projects to bypass traditional delays.
• ERCOT’s 765 kV Strategic Transmission Expansion Plan (STEP) is expected to eliminate 1,400 miles of upgrades and save millions in congestion costs.
• ERCOT forecasts 95.5 GW of solar and 101 GW of battery storage additions by 2030, though Enverus PRISM models show lower probability-weighted completions.
• The Texas Energy Fund (TEF), created to support dispatchable generation, due diligence process continues to be very active. Four projects were withdrawn in March, 2 projects were denied in April, and 4 additional projects were advanced to the due diligence process in April and May. The first 2 TEF loans were awarded in summer 2025.