The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has released staff’s 2025 Summer Assessment on the outlook for energy markets and electric reliability during the June to September period.
According to the assessment, if normal operating conditions succeed, all regions of the country will have adequate generating resources to meet expected summer demand and operating reserve requirements; however, margins are affected as generation resources retire and load has increased due to hyperscale users, such as data centers.
Regions like Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC)-New England, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and PJM Interconnection are expected to have a tight generation availability due to above-normal electricity demand, periods of low wind and solar output, wildfires disrupting available transfers and generator availability, and retirements of generation capacity.
If anticipated warmer-than-average temperatures are seen, the electric grid is anticipated to be challenged throughout the continental United States with increased uncertainty due to weather events, weather forecasting, and energy demand. In addition, load is expected to be higher in summer 2025 as compared to the past four summers.
Moreover, wholesale electricity prices are expected to be higher in summer 2025 as compared to summer 2024 in most regions, especially in the Northeast U.S. The increase in prices is partially due to higher natural gas prices at all major trading hubs across the country because of lower natural gas storage levels due to a colder winter as compared to previous years.
