New Economic Study Report Highlights Strategies to Reduce Emissions in New England’s Developing Grid

According to ISO New England’s new economic study report, New England’s Evolving Grid, achieving 85% of the New England states’ CO2 emissions reduction goals by 2045 can be achieved through a combination of mostly solar, land-based wind, and short-duration energy storage.

While most of the New England states are aiming to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050, some states are adopting targets of up to 100%. The ISO’s 2024 Economic Study models possible versions of the 2033 through 2050 regional grid, investigating the role of a future power system build-out of solar photovoltaics (PV), wind, small modular reactors (SMRs), and energy storage (BESS) in achieveing policy goals while operating reliably and cost-effectively.

Key 2024 Economic Study findings

• Emissions reductions beyond 85% of policy goals drive rapidly escalating costs.
  • The costs are driven by the more expensive zero-carbon dispatchable technologies required to decarbonize extended cold snaps in winter.
• Demand growth also increases costs beyond the 2040s.
  •  Before 2040, the modeled 2033 resource mix can serve forecasted demand, and new resources are required only to meet emissions targets. From 2040 onward, new resources are also needed to support demand growth. Rising electrification of heating and transportation both contribute to the growth, the last 15% of electrification drives an 18% increase in costs.
• Land-based wind is consistently economical from 2033 to 2050, while PV supports early decarbonization.
  • Land-based wind is the most consistently cost-effective at reducing carbon emissions over the entire study’s timeline, including more of this technology reduces the total build-out cost. Utility-scale PV is similarly cost-effective at reducing emissions, primarily before the 2040s.
• Shifting the hours of peak demand in winter reduces costs.
  • Encouraging consumers to charge electric vehicles during the day instead of at night is expected to take better advantage of future high PV production and help reduce the need for more expensive zero-carbon dispatchable technologies. Shifting 100% of the 2050 EV fleet to a managed charging program reduces future costs by an estimated 12%, or $18 billion.
• Deep decarbonization in the 2040s drives increased curtailment of renewables and reduces the economic viability of certain technologies.
  • Long-duration storage is often depleted in future winters, and zero-carbon, fuel-reliant dispatchable generators like SMRs are necessary to meet winter peaks.
• Including more dispatchable technologies reduces needed system capacity by over 15%.
  • Including zero-carbon SMRs and long-duration BESS makes for a more cost-effective build-out than one without them. And combining some or all of the strategies explored in the report are anticipated to reduce costs even further.