A new report from ICF projects significant increases in U.S. electricity demand over the next 25 years, alongside potential implications for system reliability, generation planning, and retail pricing.
The report forecasts that:
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Overall U.S. electricity demand may increase by 25% by 2030 and 78% by 2050.
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Peak electricity demand could rise by 14% by 2030 and 54% by 2050.
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Residential retail electricity rates could increase between 15% and 40% by 2030, depending on market-specific conditions.
These projections suggest demand is expected to grow at a much faster pace than in previous decades. Factors contributing to this increase include expansion in data center capacity driven by artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and cryptocurrency mining, as well as broader electrification trends such as the adoption of electric vehicles and electric heating systems.
To support this growth, the report recommends a diversified generation strategy that includes a wide mix of technologies and fuel types. It also emphasizes the importance of investment in demand-side management (DSM) programs, which include tools such as demand response, energy efficiency, and behind-the-meter energy solutions. According to the report, expanding DSM initiatives could offset up to 10% of projected electricity demand by 2030 — up from an estimated 8% in 2025.
“This period of rapid growth in electricity demand presents new challenges and opportunities for grid operators and energy providers,” said Anne Choate, executive vice president for energy, environment, and infrastructure at ICF. “Meeting demand reliably and affordably will likely require coordinated planning, diverse generation sources, and increased customer participation in energy management.”
