The Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment has estimated that the NPCC Region will have an adequate supply of electricity in summer 2025.
The overall NPCC coincident electricity summer peak demand is expected to be approximately 104,600 MW, which is approximately 400 MW lower as compared to summer 2024. A total installed capacity of about 157,000 MW is projected to be in place to meet electricity demand in the Region.
NPCC’s installed capacity has decreased by approximately 1,300 MW as compared to summer 2024. The largest capacity decrease occurred in Ontario due to the planned retirement of the Pickering G1 and G4 nuclear units.
According to estimates, sufficient transmission capability and adequate capacity margins to meet peak demand and required operating reserves are also indicated. NPCC’s spare operable capacity (over and above reserve requirements) in summer 2025 is estimated to range from 4,700 MW to over 17,000 MW.
“NPCC’s assessment indicates our Region has spare capacity for this summer, which can be used to help mitigate reliability risks that may result from unexpected unavailability of key facilities, fuel supply interruptions, generation maintenance, or higher than anticipated demand,” said Charles Dickerson, NPCC President and Chief Executive Officer.
New England, the state of New York and the Canadian Provinces of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes are expected to have enough supplies of electricity in summer 2025. Quebec is anticipated to meet forecast electricity demand by a wide margin enabling transfers of surplus electricity supplies to other Areas of the Region, if required.
The assessment considered risks like higher than expected demand, forecast demand uncertainty, unexpected generator plant outages, transmission constraints between neighboring Regions and within NPCC, the implementation of operating procedures, the estimated impact of demand response programs, and additional capacity unavailability coupled with reduced transfer capabilities.
“NPCC continues to see sustained growth in distributed photovoltaic resources,” said Phil Fedora, NPCC Chief Engineer and Senior Vice President of External Affairs. “The reduction to NPCC’s summer peak demand due to behind-the-meter photovoltaic resources is estimated to be over 4,000 MW.”
NPCC will continue to monitor the operating conditions of the bulk power system throughout the summer. NPCC conducts daily and week-ahead calls between NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions, coordinate planned maintenance and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions.
NPCC also supports industry-wide reliability and security coordination efforts to promote communications, awareness, and information sharing.
