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Solar Forecasting Imperative

Sept. 24, 2018
Even relatively dormant sectors like nonresidential and community solar projects are on the upswing in parts of the country

The latest edition of the Smart Energy Power Alliance’s (SEPA) Utility Solar Market Snapshot reported that utilities have connected over 42 GW of solar projects to the electric grid since 2007.  Even relatively dormant sectors like nonresidential and community solar projects are on the upswing in parts of the country.  High solar generation penetration states are seeing variations of the infamous California duck curve and dramatic swings in solar production in hard-to-predict weather-related patterns.  Given our growing dependence on solar energy, it is not surprising that improving our ability to more reliably forecast solar generation has become an imperative. 

The U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office is coming to the rescue with additional funding for the Solar Forecasting funding 2 grant program whose goal is to advance predictive modeling for solar forecasts and generation potential. The latest grant of $1.8 Million is to EPRI for its Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty project.  As the name implies, the project will investigate data from operating projects to analyze solar power output and come up with new predictive tools and system operating methods.  Specific project objectives include:  developing improved probabilistic solar power forecasts for utility scale and distributed solar; designing use cases for forecasts based on system power operation simulations from three utility participants; and developing a scheduling management framework for integrating solar forecasts into operations. Aidan Tuohy, principal project manager for transmission operations and planning at EPRI, informed the press that improved solar probabilistic forecasts integrated into utility scheduling and reserve processes has the potential to help utilities improve reliability and reduce solar integration costs. 

To learn more about the grants issued under the US DOE Solar Forecasting funding 2 grant program, check out the following link:  https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-announces-12-million-advance-early-stage-solar-research.

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